XRP Flashes Rare SuperTrend Buy Signal as On-Chain Losses Hit Record Extremes

XRP has produced its first SuperTrend buy signal since mid-June, according to AMBCrypto, offering traders a rare technical cue after weeks of sustained downside pressure. The signal arrived alongside record-low readings on XRP’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a combination that analysts say could mark a turning point even as on-chain activity shows signs of lagging behind price.

At the time of writing, XRP traded around $1.1014 after reclaiming the $1.0385 support zone, a level buyers have repeatedly defended during the recent slide, AMBCrypto reported.

A signal with a track record

The latest SuperTrend buy signal echoes a prior setup that preceded a 14% price rally, according to the report. Citing analytics account Ali Charts, AMBCrypto noted that the same indicator had previously flagged XRP’s last two major declines of 19% and 16%, underscoring its recent track record at inflection points in the market.

Still, technical indicators rarely guarantee identical outcomes across different market cycles. AMBCrypto’s analysis characterized the fresh signal as evidence that selling pressure had eased and that short-term buyers had regained control, rather than confirmation of a durable trend reversal.

Holder losses reach historic extremes

On-chain data from Santiment cited in the report showed XRP’s average investor returns falling to their weakest levels in the asset’s history. The 30-day MVRV ratio dropped to -45%, while the 365-day MVRV ratio fell even further to -47%, leaving both short- and long-term holders deeply underwater.

Historically, such extreme negative readings have tended to appear after prolonged capitulation phases rather than periods of fresh buying enthusiasm, according to AMBCrypto. Rather than signaling new demand, the figures suggest that most sellers had already absorbed heavy losses before exiting.

Even so, deeply negative MVRV values have historically improved the long-term risk-reward setup for an asset, since fewer investors remain willing to sell at depressed levels. The metric therefore strengthens the case for a relief rally, though broader market conditions will ultimately determine whether any recovery can be sustained.

Network Value to Transactions spikes, raising utility questions

Data from CryptoQuant referenced in the report showed XRP’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio climbing sharply to 194.71, a 470.92% jump over the previous 24 hours. The NVT ratio compares a network’s market valuation against the value transferred across its blockchain.

Such a steep increase typically indicates that market valuation is rising faster than actual transaction activity, rather than confirming stronger network usage. AMBCrypto noted this divergence often appears when price recovers faster than on-chain demand, and that sustained upside would likely require stronger network participation over time.

MACD turns higher as key resistance looms

Chart data from TradingView cited in the report showed the daily MACD line crossing above its signal line, with the histogram shifting back into positive territory — a sign that bearish momentum has weakened after weeks of decline.

XRP still trades below the major resistance at $1.2352, which stands as the next key barrier for any sustained recovery. A decisive break above that level would expose the $1.3653 resistance, while a rejection could send attention back toward the $1.0385 support, according to the report.

Overall, AMBCrypto’s analysis characterized the technical picture as improving but unconfirmed, noting that XRP still needs a decisive breakout above nearby resistance before a broader bullish trend can be established.