Bitcoin’s Lag Behind Record Stocks Is Temporary, Say Schwab and Hashdex

Bitcoin is trading just below $62,000, more than 50% off its October peak, even as U.S. equities hit record highs on the back of the artificial intelligence boom. Two new research notes from asset managers Hashdex and Charles Schwab argue this disconnect between crypto and stocks is temporary, though the firms reach that conclusion through different lines of analysis, according to CoinDesk.

Attention, not fundamentals, has shifted

Samir Kerbage, chief investment officer at Hashdex, wrote in a midyear market outlook that bitcoin’s recent weakness reflects where investors are currently allocating capital rather than any deterioration in the health of the digital asset ecosystem, CoinDesk reports.

“Capital follows attention and narratives,” Kerbage wrote. “Crypto has benefited from this in the past but right now, attention is elsewhere. AI infrastructure plays, IPO pipelines, macro positioning around rate expectations, are absorbing the flows.”

Kerbage argued that this rotation of capital toward AI-related trades has obscured several structural developments strengthening crypto’s long-term investment case. He pointed to expanding institutional infrastructure across banks, brokers and payment providers, alongside improving regulatory clarity in the United States that could deepen further if Congress passes the CLARITY Act this summer.

On-chain activity keeps climbing despite subdued prices

According to Hashdex, stablecoin transaction volume in the first half of 2026 has already surpassed the total for all of 2025, while tokenized real-world assets have grown more than 60% year to date. The firm also said overall crypto ecosystem transactions reached record highs during the second quarter.

“The gap between market capitalization and on-chain activity has never been wider,” Kerbage wrote, arguing that the divergence between prices and network fundamentals is unlikely to persist indefinitely.

Schwab points to a familiar post-halving pattern

Charles Schwab’s director of digital currencies research and strategy, Jim Ferraioli, reached a similar conclusion through a different approach, examining bitcoin’s historical market cycles rather than capital flows, CoinDesk reports. He argued the current prolonged recovery is broadly consistent with previous post-halving periods, even though many investors had expected institutional adoption and spot exchange-traded funds to permanently break bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle.

Ferraioli noted that, historically, bitcoin has taken more than a year after bear-market bottoms to reclaim levels above the production costs of less efficient miners, which he currently estimates at roughly $95,000. He added that the average investor’s cost basis sits near $80,000, a level that could create selling pressure as holders look to exit positions once they recover their losses.

While Ferraioli stopped short of calling the four-year halving cycle a law of markets, he said the pattern has become deeply embedded in investor psychology. “Through enough market lore, the so-called ‘bitcoin halving cycle’ has become a feature of bitcoin,” he said, adding that its impact may diminish over time as the asset matures and volatility declines.

Read more: CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin’s Next Bull Run May Need Trillions in Fresh Capital