Bitcoin Steadies Near $62K, but CoinShares Says This Is Only Early-Stage Bottoming

Bitcoin has climbed back above $62,000, rising 1.3% over the past day to trade around $62,494.63, but asset manager CoinShares cautions that the recovery from the coin’s recent low near $57,000 does not yet mark a durable turnaround. According to CoinShares, current price action “still looks like the early stage of a bottoming process, not the start of a clean new leg higher.”

Weak jobs data behind the bounce

CoinShares attributes Bitcoin’s rebound largely to a softer-than-expected June U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which showed only 57,000 jobs added versus a forecast of 115,000. That figure also came in well below May’s revised gain of 129,000, which itself was cut down from an initially reported 172,000.

The unemployment rate ticked down from 4.3% to 4.2% over the same period. Following the release, markets trimmed expectations for a near-term Fed rate hike, and the two-year Treasury yield fell by more than five basis points, a move that typically pushes investors toward riskier assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies.

CoinShares warns against reading too much into this reaction, however, noting it should not be mistaken for a broader shift in Federal Reserve policy. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at its June meeting, the first under new chair Kevin Warsh, and the accompanying dot plot leaned hawkish rather than dovish. Policymakers now expect rates to average 3.8% by the end of 2026, up sharply from the 3.4% projection made just three months earlier.

Whale selling has cooled, but capital is rotating elsewhere

According to the report, wallets holding more than 100,000 BTC dumped roughly $39 billion worth of Bitcoin around the October market peak, marking the single biggest drag on price throughout 2025. That heavy selling has largely stopped in 2026.

Bitcoin exchange-traded products have still seen net outflows of about $2.7 billion so far this year, but CoinShares argues this does not signal eroding confidence in the asset. Instead, the firm says much of that capital has rotated into AI-focused ETFs, which have pulled in roughly $5.5 billion in inflows over the same window.

Read more: Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $4.4B in 13-Day Streak, but Lifetime Inflows Stay Positive

Lingering risks and a leverage buildup

CoinShares points to several additional headwinds that could complicate a sustained recovery. These include continued geopolitical uncertainty tied to the Iran conflict, fading prospects for the CLARITY Act being passed this year, and potential supply pressure stemming from Strategy’s large Bitcoin holdings.

Market data shows open interest in Bitcoin has been steadily climbing since mid-June, according to CoinGlass figures cited in the report, indicating traders keep opening new positions despite the recent volatility. But the combination of a relatively subdued spot price alongside rising open interest suggests leverage is building on both the long and short sides of the market.

That setup raises the risk of a sharp move in either direction, as a wave of liquidations could amplify Bitcoin’s next major swing. For now, CoinShares’ base case remains that the market is stabilizing rather than launching a fresh rally toward higher levels.