Bitcoin ETF Inflows Return After 10-Day Outflow Streak as Gold Correlation Deepens

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States recorded a net inflow of $221 million on Thursday, breaking a ten-day streak of outflows, according to data cited by QCP Capital. The reversal came just days after Bitcoin printed a fresh yearly low of $57,700 before briefly rebounding to $62,000 following a softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report.

The rebound offers a tentative signal that institutional appetite may be returning after a brutal first half of 2026 in which both Bitcoin and gold suffered heavy capital exits as the so-called “debasement trade” unwound amid slow progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Gold and Bitcoin become outflow “roomies”

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas observed that gold-tracking funds GLD and GDX are increasingly mirroring Bitcoin’s struggles. Short interest on GLD, which tracks long commodity positions in gold, has spiked 80% according to S3 data, while short interest on GDX, which tracks gold mining equities, has climbed 50%.

Balchunas described the two assets as “fast on the way to becoming roomies with bitcoin in the proverbial doghouse,” pointing to a rough year for gold funds alongside Bitcoin’s own weakness.

Bitcoin’s decline in 2026 accelerated after it failed to break above $83,000 during a relief rally in the second quarter. According to DWF Labs, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $5.4 billion in the first half of 2026, the first negative half-year since the products launched in 2024.

CME Commitments of Traders data, which tracks positioning by large institutional players, told a similar story. Net positioning stayed negative for most of the first half of the year, with only brief positive readings in late March and April, indicating institutions were, on average, shorting Bitcoin even as whales stepped up accumulation.

The scale of whale buying was reportedly too small to offset the broader selling pressure from institutional investors and ETF redemptions.

Is the macro risk trade fading?

The weaker U.S. jobs report appears to have shifted sentiment, easing fears of further Federal Reserve rate hikes and helping CME net positioning turn briefly positive alongside the return of ETF inflows.

QCP Capital analysts said the move suggests “spot demand was beginning to firm,” but cautioned that confirmation of a broader shift depends on upcoming inflation data. The firm noted that “broader confirmation of a front-end dovish repricing likely still needs the 14 Jul CPI and 15 Jul PPI prints ahead of the month-end FOMC, but the flip in flows suggests spot demand is beginning to firm.”

Traders are watching several resistance levels for Bitcoin in the near term, including $62,300, the $65,000-$67,000 zone, and the 200-day simple moving average near $75,000.

Despite the tentative rebound, some analysts expect broader weakness to persist through the third quarter, with a potential market cycle bottom for Bitcoin not forming until the fourth quarter of 2026.

Read more: Bitcoin’s Rare UTXO Buy Signal Faces Test From Persistent Miner Selling