XRP Jumps 8% as Record Holder Losses Signal Possible Contrarian Bottom

XRP has climbed roughly 8% over the past week to trade near $1.14, even as on-chain data shows holders of the token are sitting on their steepest average losses on record, according to CoinDesk. Some traders are interpreting the unusual combination of deep unrealized losses and rising price as a contrarian signal that selling pressure may be running out.

Holder losses hit historic extremes

The signal comes from XRP’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, which compares the current price against the average price at which coins last changed hands. A negative MVRV means the typical holder is underwater.

According to analytics firm Santiment, XRP’s 30-day MVRV sits near -45% while its 365-day MVRV is around -47%. Santiment said in a Friday post that the combined reading is the lowest in XRP’s history, meaning both recent buyers and those who have held the token for a year are facing unusually deep losses on paper.

A capitulation, not a price call

Such stretched negative MVRV readings typically describe a capitulation phase, where holders nursing steep losses eventually sell out to buyers willing to absorb the coins at depressed levels. Santiment was careful to frame the reading as a risk-reward observation rather than a forecast of where price is headed.

“The best setups often appear when the crowd is feeling maximum pain,” the firm wrote, adding that so much downside has already been absorbed that adding exposure at current levels may carry less risk than usual — while cautioning that price could still fall further if broader crypto markets weaken.

Price rebounds despite the pain

Despite the depressed MVRV figures, XRP has been one of the stronger major tokens over the past week, rising about 8% to roughly $1.14, per CoinDesk data. That divergence between deep unrealized losses and a rising price suggests selling pressure from underwater holders may be largely exhausted, with the market now testing whether fresh buyers keep stepping in.

CoinDesk noted the pattern echoes a broader theme onchain analysts have flagged recently, where large bitcoin wallets have been accumulating even as bitcoin ETFs recorded record outflows — a capitulation-and-absorption dynamic that has historically formed closer to cycle lows than to market tops.

Still, MVRV measures how washed-out positioning is rather than pinpointing when a trend will reverse. Stretched losses can persist for extended periods while a market moves sideways or continues lower, meaning the reading confirms exhausted selling pressure without guaranteeing that a bottom is in place.

Read more: XRP Derivatives Buying Hits 2026 High, But On-Chain Data Sends Mixed Signals