Bitcoin’s Rare UTXO Buy Signal Faces Test From Persistent Miner Selling

Bitcoin climbed back above $62,000 this week, and an on-chain indicator flashed its first buy signal since November 2022, according to AMBCrypto. But the rebound is unfolding alongside a wave of BTC sales from major mining companies, raising questions about whether the bullish reading can hold.

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded inflows of $223.5 million on July 2, according to data from Farside Investors, ending nearly two weeks of net outflows. The renewed inflows coincided with a 2.56% price jump on Thursday, with traders now eyeing the $64,000 local resistance level as the next test.

Weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data also contributed to the move, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates, which tends to boost demand for risk assets including Bitcoin.

UTXO ratio flashes rare “buy” signal

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlighted Bitcoin’s Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio, a metric tracking the net balance of BTC supply sitting in profit versus loss. The ratio has dropped deep into negative territory in recent weeks, triggering a green “buy” signal on the chart for the first time since November 2022.

That earlier signal in 2022 coincided with the market’s cyclical bottom and the start of a broader recovery. Analysts note that confirmation this time would require the ratio to hold above zero while Bitcoin’s price continues climbing over the coming weeks.

Miners keep selling as costs rise

Offsetting the optimism is continued selling from major Bitcoin mining companies. AMBCrypto previously reported that firms including Riot Platforms, Mara Holdings and Hut 8 Mining Corp have been offloading BTC holdings, a move widely attributed to increasingly expensive mining operations.

Analyst Crypto Onchain pointed to a sharp rise in miner outflows tracked via CryptoQuant data, arguing that these entities are selling spot holdings primarily to cover operational costs rather than out of a bearish market view.

Smart money selling, retail buying the dip

Additional data cited in the report showed Binance stablecoin netflows averaging negative $126 million per day, while funding rates on derivatives markets remained positive. Taken together, the analyst suggested this points to larger, more experienced holders selling spot Bitcoin while smaller retail traders take on leveraged long positions to “catch the knife.”

Historically, this combination — legacy supply entering the market alongside rising retail leverage — has tended to precede sustained price drawdowns and long squeezes, according to the analysis. That dynamic complicates the picture for the rare UTXO buy signal, even as ETF inflows and macro tailwinds offer near-term support for Bitcoin’s price.

Read more: Bitcoin Traders Turn Back to Macro Signals After Kraken Flags Policy Uncertainty