Bitcoin’s Recent Buyers Are Down 15% — Here’s Why Fewer Are Rushing to Sell

If you bought Bitcoin sometime in the last few months, there’s a good chance you’re currently sitting on a loss. On-chain data highlighted by AMBCrypto shows that so-called “short-term holders” — people who bought BTC within the past one to six months — are on average about 15% underwater. But there’s a silver lining: fewer of them appear to be panic-selling right now, which is often a sign that a market is quietly stabilizing rather than falling apart.

What “underwater” actually means for your coins

Analysts split Bitcoin holders into groups based on when they bought in, then track the average price each group paid. According to AMBCrypto, buyers from the past three to six months paid an average of roughly $74,900 per Bitcoin — well above where the coin has traded recently after touching a low of $57,800 in late June. That’s the group carrying the heaviest paper losses.

Buyers from just the past week to month, on the other hand, got in around $61,600, putting them in a much better spot depending on where price sits today. This matters because holders who are deep in the red tend to become sellers the moment they can break even, which can cap any rally before it really gets going.

Why selling pressure easing is a big deal

Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., cited by AMBCrypto, tracks a metric called the Bitcoin Realized Pressure Model, which weighs how much recent buyers are selling versus how much they’re accumulating. Back in February, buying pressure averaged 61% against just 22% for selling — a strongly bullish setup that preceded a price bounce. In May, that flipped hard, with selling at 43% and buying down to just 11%.

Now, in June and July, the pattern looks more like February again: buying pressure has climbed back to 37–46%, while selling has been compressed to around 16%. In plain terms, more recent buyers are holding on and even adding to their positions rather than dumping their coins, which is generally read as an accumulation phase rather than capitulation.

The level everyone’s watching: $71,000

Based on Fibonacci retracement analysis — a common charting tool that maps out likely bounce zones — AMBCrypto notes that Bitcoin’s current recovery could extend toward the $73,200 to $77,500 range, often called the “golden pocket.” Adler Jr. specifically flagged $71,000 as a key level: reclaiming it would be a meaningful confirmation that the bullish pivot is holding.

That said, this isn’t a guaranteed straight line up. AMBCrypto also pointed to warning signs elsewhere in the market: the Coinbase Premium Index — a gauge of buying demand from institutional and US-based traders — has stayed negative in recent weeks, and rising leverage in derivatives markets leaves the market exposed to sudden liquidation cascades if prices swing sharply. Stablecoin balances moving off exchanges also suggest many traders are playing defense rather than aggressively buying the dip.

What this means if you’re holding BTC

For everyday holders, the takeaway isn’t a prediction that Bitcoin is about to rocket higher — it’s a reminder of how much recent buyer psychology can shape short-term price swings. If Bitcoin climbs back toward that $70,000-plus zone, don’t be surprised if a wave of underwater buyers from the past few months sell just to break even, which could stall momentum temporarily.

None of this changes anything about Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals, but it’s a useful lens for understanding why the price might chop around certain levels instead of moving smoothly. As always, on-chain data offers clues, not guarantees, so it’s worth watching alongside broader market conditions rather than treating any single metric as a green light.