Bitcoin’s Old ‘Bottom’ Signal Just Reappeared — Here’s the Catch Before You Celebrate
Bitcoin's break above $66K has revived a rare bottom signal seen before huge past rallies — but fading liquidity tells a more cautious story.
Bitcoin has pushed back above $66,000, and a set of technical signals that showed up before three of the biggest rallies in the coin’s history has just flashed again. For holders who’ve been staring at a choppy $60,000-to-$65,000 range for weeks, that’s the kind of headline that gets pulses racing. But before you start dreaming about $70,000, there’s a second half to this story that’s a lot less exciting: money is still leaving crypto, not flowing back in.
What exactly is a “macro bottom” signal?
Analyst Ali Martinez pointed to three indicators lining up at once: the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting around 43.65, the Chande Momentum Oscillator near -71, and Bitcoin’s price trading close to its 50-month moving average. In plain English, these are just different ways of measuring how “oversold” or exhausted a market looks over a long timeframe — think of them as gauges that try to spot when sellers have run out of steam.
Historically, when all three line up together, it has marked some of Bitcoin’s best long-term buying zones. The same combination appeared around $235 in 2015, right before Bitcoin rallied more than 8,300%. It showed up again near $3,333 in early 2019, ahead of a roughly 1,900% climb, and once more around $16,000 in late 2022, shortly before a 675% run higher. The setup also flickered briefly during Bitcoin’s dip to $58,000 last month.
Why the excitement comes with a warning label
Here’s the catch: chart signals only tell you half the story. For a rally to actually stick, there needs to be fresh cash sitting on the sidelines ready to buy — and right now, that cash looks like it’s heading out the door instead of in.
Stablecoins — the dollar-pegged tokens like USDT and USDC that traders use as “dry powder” to buy crypto — have seen their total market cap shrink by more than $10 billion over the past month. On-chain data also shows stablecoins have been flowing off exchanges for 35 straight days, and Bitcoin hasn’t seen a meaningful pickup in spot buying to offset that. Meanwhile, stablecoin dominance has climbed to around 13% of the total crypto market, closing in on Ethereum’s own 10%-plus share — a sign that more of the money still in the game is parking itself in cash-like tokens rather than chasing prices higher.
What this actually means if you’re holding BTC
If you’re holding Bitcoin, the fair takeaway isn’t “sell now” or “buy more” — it’s that two important signals are pointing in opposite directions. The long-term chart pattern says this could be one of those rare, historically rewarding entry zones. The liquidity data says the fuel needed to actually push price through $70,000 hasn’t shown up yet.
That combination is exactly why this rally, if it comes, might be choppier and slower than past ones rather than a straight shot upward. Newer holders in particular should treat this as a reminder that technical patterns describe probability, not certainty — and that no single chart signal has ever guaranteed a specific price target.
Read more: Bitcoin’s Bounce From $57K Explained — What the Data Really Means for Holders
